Commodity bear market for another 15 years?

Interesting charts from commodity strategist John LaForge at Ned Davis Research. He looked at boom/bust cycles of commodities in the past 214 years, and found that the average commodity bull market lasted 16 years, and the average bear market following the ultimate peak 20 years. If this cycle repeats again today, general commodities could be in a bear market for another 15 years (if 2011 was this cycle’s peak). I recently wrote I don’t believe the bear market will last this long this time, and also believe that agriculture prices and gold could outperform general commodities even in a general commodity bear market.

commodities boom and bust