Mass Social Unrest Hits Egypt

Back in October 2012, ETM research found the countries most at risk of mass, nationwide social unrest were:

Based on monetary inflation trends over the last two years, those countries most at risk of social upheaval in the coming months are Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina and India.

Then Turkey boiled over.

Then Brazil.

South Africa has been on and off for some time, but is likely to still get worse.

On June 22, Ciaran Ryan wrote, again citing ETM research, that:

Egypt and Argentina are at extreme risk of spreading unrest. “In Egypt, poverty and food insecurity have reached staggering levels in the last few years, an issue that could lead to further social unrest and political instability in the Arab world’s most populous country,” according to the Wall Street Journal.

About 15% of Egypt’s population moved below the poverty line between 2009 and 2011, according to a recent joint report by the United Nations World Food Program. The report also found that an estimated 13.7 million people, or 17% of the country’s 82 million population, suffered from food insecurity there, compared to 14% in 2009.

Couple those underlying economic realities, devalue the Egyptian pound by 15% since the start of the year, which drives the basic cost of living sharply higher, and you have a social unrest cocktail.

Not even a month thereafter, Egypt is exploding with reports that millions of people are flooding the streets to protest the rule of Islamist president.

India is another high risk mass unrest country on our radar, and Argentina is also up there.